WELLINGTON, New Zealand — The British and Irish Lions are hoping their 13th rugby tour to New Zealand will be a lucky one, though that may depend on their ability to digest lessons of history and particularly to note the dangers of hubris.
The Lions have not been to New Zealand in 12 years and if the current squad needs a lesson in how not to handle one of world rugby's toughest tours, they need look no further than Clive Woodward's ill-fated 2005 team.
That squad left Britain hailed as the best rugby team ever assembled, not just in terms of players, coaches and support staff but in its preparation, analysis and equipment. Its high hopes were quickly dispelled on an acrimonious tour which ended in a 3-0 series loss to a vastly superior All Blacks team guided by flyhalf Dan Carter.
The Lions failed on the field and off, with Woodward struggling to adapt to the combined squad environment, skipper Brian O'Driscoll injured early in the opening test and missing the rest of the series, and the team withdrawing into itself as losses mounted. Warren Gatland, the New Zealand-born coach of the 2017 Lions, insists he has heeded the lessons of '05.
"We're aware there's a bit of bridge building to do after 2005 with those things we do off and on the field and the way we conduct ourselves," Gatland said. "If we can win some hearts and minds off the field and play some good rugby then we're going to end up with a cracking tour."
If anything, the task ahead of the 2017 tourists is even harder than the one the Lions faced a dozen years ago when they lost four of 11 matches. The itinerary is more intense: 10 matches compacted into five weeks including three tests, a match against the New Zealand Maori — who beat the 2005 team — and matches against all five New Zealand Super Rugby sides.
Even with 41 players and with the benefit of long and careful logistical planning, the task ahead of Gatland's team is daunting.
The first match of the tour is against a Provincial Barbarians team at Whangarei on Saturday is by far the easiest of the tour. The Barbarians team is drawn mainly from New Zealand's provincial teams — only a handful of players have Super Rugby experience — and that may allow the Lions a heavy opening win.
But from then on the pressure of the tour will be relentless with matches against Super Rugby teams midweek and on Saturdays which will test the fitness and resilience of the Lions squad long before the test series begins.
Gatland believes this is the toughest tour the Lions have ever undertaken.
Commentators believe the Lions' playing style will closely match that which Gatland has developed in his 10 years as head coach of Wales. That would be conservative, relying on a strong set piece and field position, on big ball-carriers taking the ball through the middle and only rarely spreading possession to the wings. Defence will be critical.
Gatland has hinted he might have more up his sleeve, saying "it's obvious that in the first five games you're not going to show everything, you're not going to show your hand." He has also indicated that he would not be concerned if the Lions were to lose matches outside the tests.
"What I've learned on past tours is that the whole thing is about a test series," said Gatland, who guided the Lions to a test series victory in Australia in 2013. "The warm-up games are for the test series.
"Yes you want to perform well. But if you drop a game because you're trying something then it's not the end of the world."
All Blacks head coach Steve Hansen believes he knows how the Lions will play, saying the team's limited preparation time might force it to rely on a conservative gameplan. But he is taking nothing for granted.
"We've got a thing we call ABCs of rugby - Assume some things, Believe nothing until we Confirm them," he said. "We assume Warren's not going to have an epiphany and change the way he plays but we're only assuming that, we're not believing it until we see them play."
There are no secrets about how the All Blacks will play. They will use the high-tempo style which has served them so well for so many years. The question will be whether the Lions have the ability to assert their own style and whether they can survive against the All Blacks if they cannot.
By Steve McMorran, The Associated Press
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